Lines of Navigation | Monthly Portfolio Update - July 202
Our little systems have their day; They have their day and cease to be - Tennyson, In Memoriam A.H.H. This is my forty-fourth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund - $716 680
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund - $41 103
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund - $77 788
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund - $111 667
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) - $202 336
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) - $54 872
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) - $230 058
Telstra shares (TLS) -$1 785
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) - $6 449
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) - $5 316
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) - $124 756
Secured physical gold - $20 070
Ratesetter (P2P lending) - $9 881
Bitcoin - $173 010
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) - $17 258
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) -$2 619
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) - $4 471
Total portfolio value: $1 800 119 (+$34 376 or 1.9%) Asset allocation
Australian shares - 41.1%
Global shares- 22.2%
Emerging market shares - 2.2%
International small companies - 2.9%
Total international shares - 27.3%
Total shares - 68.4% (6.6% under)
Total property securities - 0.2% (0.2% over)
Australian bonds - 4.5%
International bonds - 9.1%
Total bonds - 13.6% (1.4% under)
Gold - 8.0%
Bitcoin - 9.6%
Gold and alternatives - 17.7% (7.7% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments The portfolio has substantially increased this month, continuing the recovery in portfolio value since March. The strong portfolio growth of over $34 000, or 1.9 per cent, returns the value of the portfolio close to that achieved at the end of February this year. [Chart] This month there was minimal movement in the value of Australian and global equity holdings, There was, however, a significant lift of around 6 per cent in the value of gold exchange traded fund units, as well as a rise in the value of Bitcoin holdings. These movements have pushed the value of gold holdings to their highest level so far on the entire journey. Their total value has approximately doubled since the original major purchases across 2009 to 2015. For most of the past year gold has functioned as a portfolio stabiliser, having a negative correlation to movements in Australian equities (of around -0.3 to -0.4). As low and negative bond rates spread across the world, however, the opportunity cost of holding gold is reduced, and its potential diversification benefits loom larger. The fixed income holdings of the portfolio also continued to fall beneath the target allocation, making this question of what represents a defensive (or negatively correlated to equity) asset far from academic. This steady fall is a function of the slow maturing of Ratesetter loans, which were largely made between 2015 and 2017. Ratesetter has recently advised of important changes to its market operation, and placed a fixed maximum cap on new loan rates. By replacing market set rates with maximum rates, the peer-to-peer lending platform appears to be shifting to more of a 'intermediated' role in which higher past returns (of around 8 to 9 per cent) will now no longer be possible. [Chart] The expanding value of gold and Bitcoin holdings since January last year have actually had the practical effect of driving new investments into equities, since effectively for each dollar of appreciation, for example, my target allocation to equities rises by seven dollars. Consistent with this, investments this month have been in the Vanguard international shares exchange-traded fund (VGS) using Selfwealth. This has been directed to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares. Fathoming out: franking credits and portfolio distributions Earlier last month I released a summary of portfolio income over the past half year. This, like all before it, noted that the summary was prepared on a purely 'cash' basis, reflecting dividends actually paid into a bank account, and excluding consideration of franking credits. Franking credits are credits for company tax paid at the company level, which can be passed to individual shareholders, reducing their personal tax liability. They are not cash, but for a personal investor with tax liabilities they can have equivalent value. This means that comparing equity returns to other investments without factoring these credits can produce a distorted picture of an investor's final after-tax return. In past portfolio summaries I have noted an estimate for franking credits in footnotes, but updating the value for this recently resulted in a curiosity about the overall significance of this neglected element of my equity returns. This neglect resulted from my perception earlier in the journey that they represented a marginal and abstract factor, which could effectively be assumed away for the sake of simplicity in reporting. This is not a wholly unfair view, in the sense that income physically received and able to be spent is something definably different in kind than a notional 'pre-payment' credit for future tax costs. Yet, as the saying goes, because the prospect of personal tax is as certain as extinction from this world, in some senses a credit of this kind can be as valuable as a cash distribution. Restoring the record: trends and drivers of franking credits To collect a more accurate picture of the trends and drivers of franking credits I relied on a few sources - tax statements, records and the automatic franking credit estimates that the portfolio tracking site Sharesight generates. The chart below sets out both the level and major different sources of franking credits received over the past eleven years. [Chart] From this chart some observations can be made.
The level of franking credits has grown substantially over the past ten years - from a total of under $1 000 per year to around $8 000 annually.
Recent years have seen a particularly high accrual of franking credits - such that by value, over half of the total value of franking credits has been received over the past three financial years.
These credits now constitute a significant element in total realised returns - in the last financial year the value of franking credits represented a 12 per cent boost to the total level of cash distributions, and over the past two years they have contributed around $8 000 each year to the total level of after-tax returns. This is the equivalent of the portfolio paying nearly $700 per month in tax liabilities.
The key reason for the rapid growth over the recent decade has been the increased investment holdings in Australian equities. As part of the deliberate rebalancing towards Australian shares across the past two years, these holdings have expanded. The chart below sets out the total value of Australian shares held over the comparable period. [Chart] As an example, at the beginning of this record Australian equities valued at around $276 000 were held. Three years later, the holding were nearly three times larger. The phase of consistently increasing the Australian equities holding to meet its allocated weighting is largely complete. This means that the period of rapid growth seen in the past few years is unlikely to repeat. Rather, growth will revert to be in proportion to total portfolio growth. Close to cross-over: the credit card records One of the most powerful initial motivators to reach financial independence was the concept of the 'cross over' point in Vicki Robins and Joe Dominguez's Your Money or Your Life. This was the point at which monthly expenses are exceeded by investment income. One of the metrics I have traced is this 'cross-over' point in relation to recorded credit card expenses. And this point is now close indeed. Expenditures on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month. The three year rolling average of monthly credit card spending remains at its lowest point over the period of the journey. Distributions on the same basis now meet over 99 per cent of card expenses - with the gap now the equivalent of less than $50 per month. [Chart] The period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent form of financial independence has continued. The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the the extent to which to which portfolio distributions (red) cover estimated total expenses (green), measured month to month. [Chart] An alternative way to view the same data is to examine the degree to which total expenses (i.e. fixed payments not made on credit card added to monthly credit card expenses) are met by distributions received. An updated version of this is seen in the chart below. [Chart] Interestingly, on a trend basis, this currently identifies a 'crossing over' point of trend distributions fully meeting total expenditure from around November 2019. This is not conclusive, however, as the trend curve is sensitive to the unusual COVID-19 related observations of the first half of this year, and could easily shift further downward if normal expense patterns resume. One issue this analysis raises is what to do with the 'credit card purchases' measure reported below. This measure is designed to provide a stylised benchmark of how close the current portfolio is to a target of generating the income required to meet an annual average credit card expenditure of $71 000. The problem with this is that continued falling credit card spending means that average credit card spending is lower than that benchmark for all time horizons - measured as three and four year averages, or in fact taken as a whole since 2013. So the set benchmark may, if anything, be understating actual progress compared the graphs and data above by not reflecting changing spending levels. In the past I have addressed this trend by reducing the benchmark. Over coming months, or perhaps at the end of the year, I will need to revisit both the meaning, and method, of setting this measure. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 82.6% 111.5% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 100.7% 136.0% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 80.7% 109.0% Summary One of the most challenging aspects of closing in on a fixed numerical target for financial independence with risk assets still in place is that the updrafts and downdrafts of market movements can push the goal further away, or surprisingly close. There have been long period of the journey where the total value of portfolio has barely grown, despite regular investments being made. As an example, the portfolio ended 2018 lower than it started the year. The past six months have been another such period. This can create a sense of treading water. Yet amidst the economic devastation affecting real lives and businesses, this is an extremely fortunate position to be in. Australia and the globe are set to experience an economic contraction far more severe than the Global Financial Crisis, with a lesser capacity than previously for interest rates to cushion the impact. Despite similar measures being adopted by governments to address the downturn, it is not clear whether these are fit for purpose. Asset allocation in this environment - of being almost suspended between two realities - is a difficult problem. The history of markets can tell us that just when assets seem most 'broken', they can produce outsized returns. Yet the problem remains that far from being surrounded by broken markets, the proliferation appears to be in bubble-like conditions. This recent podcast discussion with the founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer provided a useful historical context to current financial conditions this month. One of the themes of the conversation was 'thinking the unthinkable', such as a return of inflation. Similar, this Hoover Institute video discussion, with a 'Back from the future' premise, provides some entertaining, informed and insightful views on the surprising and contingent nature of what we know to be true. Some of our little systems may well have had their day, but what could replace them remains obscured to any observer. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
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Hello everyone, In this post I would like to talk about some of the DDGN Token features and company achievements. https://preview.redd.it/of2xxl7gxtg51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2ed2316a60511260102feb5f1a77750ff0c2c58 The company aims to revolutionize adult entertainment trough blockchain innovations presenting the opportunity to the user to be an active participant in this field using the Ecosystem. DEVIL´S DRAGON TOKEN is fully decentralized autonomous and encrypted. It offers the option to share, publish, and earn through selling, trading, exchanging, and utilizing the features of its ecosystem. A unique multi-use cryptocurrency with many active sites bringing new business models to life and disrupting the high set price of contemporary adult entertainment. DEVIL´S DRAGON TOKEN is a Ethereum based token that will be able to be used with any other Blockchain project or technology that is already operating. DDGN is used on active sites to access related and wanted content. The full list can be found on the website by clicking on “Sites” or scrolling down. https://www.devilsdragon.com TOKENOMICS. (ICO Information / Token Economy) Token name: DRAGON DEVIL Token Symbol: DDGN - Supply Token: 180 000 000 NOT MINTABLE Decimal: 18 - Token type: ERC20 CURRENT STATUS: Under Crowdsale with 5% PRE-SALE Token value 2000 DDGN = 1 ETH for PRIVATE - ONLY PRESALE In ITO sale the rate will be 1000 DDGN = 1 ETH START PRESALE: 2020-08-15 00:01 END: 2020-08-31 23:59 !Please note that only Ethereum is accepted. This will ensure transparency and prevent any fraudulent activities that may impact the value of the coins negatively! Token Allocation: • Presale (PRIVATE SALE) 5% (All unsold tokens will be burned) • Crowdsale 55% (All unsold tokens will be burned) • Team & Partners 9% (Only used for new partnerships and strengthen the Team) • Reserved 6% (For Exchange and Legal Purposes) • Ecosystem 18% (Only used on our platforms like us write in our White Paper) • Development Team 2% (Used only for development and purposes none of these tokens will be sold) • Founder 4% (Used for administrative, regulatory and internal ecosystem needs only) • Ext Developer 1% (Non-Team Developers to be used for Testing and other Development Purposes on all Ecosystems and their features). At this point DDGN is already listed on MyCryptoCheckout. https://preview.redd.it/zgif2u4jxtg51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ac7e157e30e1b15b5a7201370d3437deced898c The ways to earn will be further possible by rewards and revenue sharing, live broadcasts, moderating content for the approval or disapproval of forum posts, mining for content, and arranging unused hard disk space. These are set just at the start point. The potential of the new features immense. Presented Roadmap looks great: • Early 2018. KISSES TECH Established as a Czech Company (February) • Between the beginning of 2018 and the end of 2019. Fixed Adult Entertainment Coin + Many other projects related to Adult Entertainment and Blockchain to evolve and gather together: DDGN • Early 2020 Launch of the DDGN Project • Mid 2020 Launch of ETHpimp Q3 2020 ITO DDGN • Late 2020 Alpha version of the DDGN Dedicated Video Platform with a Decentralized Prize Service for Display and Manufacturing works with DDGN. On this platform the goal is to use a few supporting protocols such as ERC721 to make the videos like unique fine art creations. Luring a new business model which is fairer and more transparent. More Active Sites and More Partners for Ecosystems Alpha Version and Initial Registration First Delivery of Crowd Content Funding Network with Prizes & Decentralized Direct Revenue Sharing on the Stock exchange list • Early 2021 DDGN Platform Beta Version Dedicated Videos that Live Immediately with Real Rewards and Share Earnings for Views & Creations CDCFN.COM Fully Active with the Distribution of Live Prizes and Adding New Sites to the Ecosystem makes DDGN more rare, enjoyable, and valuable to everyone involved. Also surfing the blog (https://www.devilsdragon.com/blog) I found very interesting facts about CDCFN (Content Delivery Crowd Funding Network): www.cdcfn.com A forum like website on which people share their original content and earn rewards in DDGN (Devil´s Dragon) Earned DDGN, as mentioned before will be available for exchanging to Bitcoin, Ethereum or other currency. The platform has a members shop, too, where members can earn and spend their earned tokens (DDGN) they gained from the site. Members Shop is integrated to work along side loads of other applications & plugins. Below is presented DDGN Tokens Earning System
Forums - will allow member to earn tokens for starting topics, replying to other topics or to their own one.
Downloads – Earning by uploading files on the platform, reviewing, commenting. Also receiving tokens for each download of their uploaded file.
Calendar – Earning by submitting events, reviewing and commenting on the events.
Gallery - Allowing members to earn for uploading images, reviewing and commenting on images.
Commerce – Earning for a review on a product
Reactions - Allowing members to earn DDGN Tokens for receiving reactions from their content.
Clubs - Awarding users for joining a club and creating topics, replying and uploading files in clubs.
Media Uploader - Awarding DDGN Tokens to users for uploading documents, images, audio and video files.
Bonus DDGN Tokens – Awarding users on a daily, weekly and monthly basis. The user will have to log in at least on time in that period.
Award DDGN Tokens - Awarding DDGN to your selected members or user groups via the ACP. On the user profile a section will be possible to add showing the amount of DDGN and a link to donate. The platform will have integrated Warning System which penalizes members if they receive a warning by removing DDGN tokens and setting different amounts of DDGN for different warn reasons. Members Shop Items – allowing members to spend their tokens Each item can be created unlimited times and admins can select different prices and permissions Creating categories to place the items in Setting moderator permissions to allow certain members to buy items for free All items use their own code Each item can have its own permission settings to select what usergroups can view it, buy it or send it Members can sell back their unwanted items at a cost of a certain % of the items price admins will set in the ACP After a user stores an item it will store the rewards for that purchase, so say they store multiple items, then at a later time admins change the rewards for that item in the ACP, they will still receive the rewards set when they purchased the item The list of default items: • Opening a random post count mystery box • Opening a random reputation DDGN Tokens mystery box • Changing username • Changing member title • Adding or editing signature • Uploading an avatar • Opening a mystery DDGN Tokens box • Opening a mystery items box • Resetting users´ warning DDGN Tokens • Allowing members to go browse anonymous until their session ends • Viewing a password from a password protected forum • Playing Rock, Paper, Scissors, Lizard, Spock • Allowing users to pin topics for a selected amount of days • Allowing members to feature files for a selected amount of days • Upgrading usergroup for x amount of days, months or years • Gambling to win a random trophy from Trophy’s & Medals • Buying a trophy from Trophy’s & Medals • Buying a medal from Trophy’s & Medals • Guessing the number • Embedding a video to profile • Uploading an image to use as a background on profile • Sending a personal sticky note • Adding / Editing social info • Custom Codes / Vouchers / Coupons • Creating custom codes for members to purchase including game codes / voucher codes and so on • Once a user redeems this item they will instantly receive a PM with the code attached
List of custom items: • Each Custom Item has to be manually awarded to the members, it could be for a coupon code, it could be anything • Choosing to receive a notification or email saying x member brought x custom item and admins need to award it • Showing a table in the ACP with all custom purchases users have brought showing if the item has been awarded or not • Adding a block to the ACP dashboard with the total amount of items admins need to award manually Statistics Pages : • Shows a statistics page with a graph of the global DDGN Tokens gained on platform per day / week / month • Shows another statistics page with a graph of the amount of shop items purchased globally and the global DDGN Tokens spent per day / week / month • Shows a 3rd statistics page with a graph of the global DDGN Tokens won using items what you gamble your DDGN Tokens with Members Bank: • Allowing members to store their DDGN Tokens in a bank • Charging members to deposit their DDGN Tokens • Awarding interest to members each month on their banked DDGN Tokens • Members can view all their transactions in a nice and tidy pop up table • Showing a table in the ACP with all the members who have created a bank account • Showing a 3D pie chart in the ACP with the DDGN Tokens per member group • Showing a 3D pie chart in the ACP with the current interest to pay per usergroup • Showing a graph of the banks transactions from your selected time periods ACP: • Showing a table listing all Normal items purchased with all the information of the item purchase • Showing a table listing all custom items purchased with all the information of the item purchase • Showing a table listing all custom code items purchased with all the information of the purchase • Showing a table listing all the membergroup upgrade items purchased with all the information of the upgrade, expire date • Choosing what user groups can gain DDGN Tokens with-in the forums / downloads / reaction settings • Generating unique purchases • Showing the shop items in a nice and clean node table giving you the ability to drag and drop them to different categories and sort them in your preferred positions • Selecting the amount of items to show per page in the shop and items page • Choosing the select to view the shop page / items page / rewards & logs page from either a table view or a nice new grid view • If admins allow users to send items to others admins can select a % of the value of the item to charge the users to send that item • Picking to show either a category in the sidebar of show the categories in a filter button on the table itself • Adding a block to the ACP dashboard showing the amount of custom items admins need to award to the users With that said, I would like to hear your opinion about the project and the features that the team provides for us! All this information and much more can be found on the below links. Website: https://www.devilsdragon.com/ White paper: https://www.devilsdragon.com/whitepaper.pdf Blog: https://www.devilsdragon.com/blog/ ANN: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5260322 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/devilsdragonofficial Twitter: https://twitter.com/dragon_devils Discord: https://discord.com/invite/xCwyntG Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/useDevilsDragon Telegram: https://t.me/devilsdragon_official E-mail: [email protected] Company behind of DDGN Token and development of the platform is KISSES TECHNOLOGY (Group) s.r.o About the author: Proof of authentication link - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5260492.msg54989967#msg54989967 Bitcointalk Username - ijeb Bitcointalk URL - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1668500
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The pandemic period played into the hands of the entire team and we managed to build beauty in our services. In anticipation of the exchange, the team tidied up the sites and services and connected new tools. First of all, we paid attention to the preparation of all services for a foreign audience, taking into account its mentality. New sections, localizations, nice things, and much more to ensure the most efficient use of the TKEY resource. In addition to the new tabs, the services that we will talk about in this material, there is a special page for representatives of the exchange with the necessary documentation for listing — https://tkeycoin.com/en/documentation/. https://preview.redd.it/63a1cmdwve151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a064bff4acd1c1e3171f2c72ff79533b87aa3e1
Buying cryptocurrency for pound, dollars, euros, and other currencies
At the end of February, we told you that we are working on building a payment service that will include the provision of services: buy cryptocurrencies, sell a cryptocurrency, withdraw cryptocurrency to Bank cards, etc. This day has come, now you can buy Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Tether USDT, Basic Attention Token (BAT), Algorand (ALGO), Tron (TRX), OKB (Token Okex.com). https://preview.redd.it/1pm2cnv8we151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=69473d2e5ed1b8dc75189362b46906752be29895 The purchase is available in any currency: Russian ruble, US Dollar, Euro, British pound, Ukrainian hryvnia, Indonesian rupiah, South Korean won, Japanese yen, Turkish Lira, Argentine peso. As you can see, the currency corridors are quite extensive, which allows you to make exchanges fast and at a favorable rate. Just choose the right pair to exchange or buy, available fiat currencies: RUB, USD, EUR, GBP, UAH, IDR, KRW, JPY, TRY, ARS, available cryptocurrencies: BTC, ETH, BAT, USDT, ALGO, TRX, OKB. Even if this wide list does not include the currency you want to buy, such as Bitcoin or USDT, it’s okay — the service will automatically convert your currency into the payment currency and the Bank will make the exchange. Exchanges take place within 1–3 minutes, it is enough to pass quick verification once, which allows you to work with a volume of > 15,000 euros per month. https://preview.redd.it/0ln5uttawe151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=35de9e413db35bb53f39332aa4197cd54a3e211c
Exchange of cryptocurrencies for pound, dollars, euros, and withdrawal of Bankcard
In addition to the fact that you can now easily buy a cryptocurrency for fiat currencies, pound, dollars or any other, during this week we will finish work on the withdrawal to a Bank card and you can easily withdraw your profit to the card, the most important thing is that this is a completely legal method, and all operations pass through banks and jurisdictions where work with digital assets is legalized.
This means that when you buy or make a withdrawal to the card, you get legal funds that are credited to you by the Bank or payment system.
If you are used to working with effective tools that work in a new way, or rather correctly and legally, then this service is for you. Fast crediting, easy exchange, a large selection of currency pairs, that’s what the company is betting on. We work with the most reliable third-party partners to make your cryptocurrency process easy and convenient, and most importantly safe for You. The service supports plastic and virtual Bank cards VISA, MasterCard, MIR, and other payment systems for fast payment processing. https://preview.redd.it/x1jnm1ccwe151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=f86fc353ad5f207db8d233821204b521ba0b3d0e On the exchange page, you can choose any currency pair to exchange in the opposite direction, for example, GBP to BTC or USD to BTC. Choose a suitable pair for exchange, available fiat currencies: RUB, USD, EUR, GBP, UAH, IDR, KRW, JPY, TRY, ARS, available cryptocurrencies for exchange: BTC, ETH, BAT, USDT, ALGO, TRX, OKB. How it works When buying cryptocurrency for the first time, your Bank reserves (holds) the requested amount, then this amount is transferred to the authorization waiting state. As soon as the Bank freezes the fiat funds, the service fixes the exchange rate at the time of creating the application, reserves the cryptocurrency, and provides you with 30–40 minutes to complete verification. After successful verification, the service charges cryptocurrency to the wallet.
Support for other currencies, including TKEY, will be added gradually and highlighted through service updates. As for the TKEY exchange, it will become available in exchange services after listing on the exchange. Listing on an exchange allows you to automate the exchange process, link the necessary services, and most importantly, the exchange provides liquidity, which is key when we talk about exchanging for a particular currency. We will tell you more about the operation of the service and its advantages, chips, in a separate material dedicated to the withdrawal and purchase of cryptocurrencies for fiat currencies, as well as touch on various banking issues and tell you how you can combine the SWAP service for more efficient exchange and withdrawal to the card.
By making an exchange or purchase of cryptocurrency, you help children and people who need our help. We deduct 0.1% of the profit from each transaction to charity funds. This is the fastest and most comfortable way of charity, which allows you to bring together people who are not indifferent to other people’s problems. TKEY enables people to do good deeds, and the resulting turnover profit of 0.1% is sent to charity funds every month. Together with You, we create new opportunities for people in need who need help — “Big things have small beginnings”. How does it work? You have made an exchange or purchase operation, the company has accumulated the volume of these operations for a month->the company has chosen a charity Fund->sent funds to the charity Fund’s account. Priority charity funds are children’s aid funds. You can always suggest a candidate for a particular Fund by sending a message to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]). Why do we write Funds and not a Fund? This is the first launch of the service, so depending on the monthly volume, we will focus on distributing funds to one charity or several. For example, if we have accumulated $ 10,000, we can distribute $ 5,000 to 2 funds. if we have accumulated $ 100, it is logical that we will only send this amount to 1 Fund. With the development of the service, we will be able to focus on several funds, which we will actively help due to the received volume.
New blocks were added, the entire page was fully localized and is available in Chinese, Korean, English and Russian, and QR codes were added for easy navigation for the Asian audience.
Documentation for the exchange
We have already mentioned that there is a section for exchanges with the necessary documentation for listing, now it is available in English. In the next updates, it will be translated into Russian, Chinese (Traditional and Simplified), and Korean.
Added answers to frequently asked questions in various sections of the site, You can find the information directly on the section page, for example, TKEY-QT, SWAP or Core. Right on the page there is a FAQ section, in which we disclose answers to questions, for example: How are You going to solve the scalability problem, or why did you choose Phoenix as the logo and symbol of the project, or how do you exchange cryptocurrency for pound or dollars? As you can see, you can get answers to different questions, depending on the topic of the site section. https://preview.redd.it/8utkvv6iwe151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=d493ec784d74c5982486e36fe3b4bcbcb6d57335
In addition to various improvements, connecting services, our team has been working every day on other main areas of the Tkeycoin project, which are already being prepared for the next release and we will tell you what updates, what plans, events, and what else will be interesting this year.
Online conference with management
An online conference in question-answer format will be organized. The main task of the conference, in addition to questions and answers, is to discuss plans, talk about new directions, touch on issues of legislation, and analyze current issues of users. The online meeting format will allow you to get feedback and discuss a large number of issues in a short time. Questions related to technical support and other questions that can be answered through the administration will not be discussed. The meeting involves the development, constructive, and suggestions from users for further development of the Tkeycoin project. If you are interested in participating in the conference, you can also make business proposals during it, please use the time to your advantage. We work for you.
New content: reports, new categories, useful information
Based on user feedback, we introduce new categories to our content plan: Reports This section will be accompanied by information about the work done by the team for the month, the format of submission — abstracts, highlights. This format will help establish feedback between users and developers. Question-answer In addition to the content that we produce ourselves, users have questions that arise during the process of working with the project’s services, as well as during interaction with the project itself. To avoid making guesses and making up stories, we have introduced the question-answer category. Users ask questions in comments, and the company prepares answers based on the questions and they are published in the post. Depending on the number of questions, the post generates all the answers, or the post is divided into parts if the number of questions for the past period was the largest. In addition to asking questions, you can make suggestions to the project, for example, about new features or directions. This format also builds feedback and helps to improve all services. the most important thing is that it can not only help us but also you, as the offer and questions will help you focus on the tasks that the end-user wants to see.
TKEY-POOL (Tkeycoin pool)
We are completing the work and debugging of the official pool for Tkeycoin, this is a completely new approach for mining Tkeycoin. The pool will feature higher performance and stable architecture, a light interface, and objective commissions. A pool is a highly loaded system that works 24/7/365, it turns out that such a product hides a sufficient number of lines of code and, most importantly, is built on a reliable architecture that can withstand +50000–100000 miners, not to mention the number of connected devices for this number of miners. A cryptocurrency pool is a combination of the hardware power of many miners at once to increase the probability of finding a block. The reward for a block obtained by the pool is distributed among all participants. The TKEY pool is developed taking into account the features of the Tkeycoin blockchain, including multi-blockchain, transaction model, hashing, blocks, and other nuances that are an upgrade of the blockchain among others. Together with the pool, the TKEY network is being tested: high loads, attacks, and other tests that show positive results, proving that the TKEY blockchain can work under any loads and is protected from attacks. Our task was to: 1. Stable system for handling high loads; 2. Adaptation pool for any software; 3. Connecting any hardware for mining cryptocurrency Tkeycoin; 4. Fair remuneration calculation; 5. Security. The main goal is for any user, regardless of the software and hardware used, to be able to connect to Tkeycoin mining via a pool. The first releases will be accompanied by a simple user-friendly interface, easy connection, instructions for various mining programs that can be connected. In future releases, we will optimize the operation of the pool, add new features, as well as tracking functions and other nice things. any suggestions from miners and the community are interesting to us and will be implemented, so do not hesitate to send your suggestions after the launch.
https://preview.redd.it/fjy2dkanwe151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=99dedd6aa59ae7eb4d585d2ef1ddae4cc6dd50f9 Work on the TkeySpace mobile app is also not standing still. We will soon release updates for TkeySpace on Android and iOS. This release is a complete transition to the most stable version of the mobile wallet. This means that after the update, even with the largest changes, the user will not need to completely reinstall or restore to use the new features, as before, just update the app via the AppStore or GooglePlay. Between the previous update has been a sufficient amount of time, on average, updates are released once a month. This update will be one of the major ones. We are finishing work on the code to prepare the app for the new features that will be available this year. Besides, we are improving the app’s logic, data processing speed, optimizing the code, restoring order, and preparing for the global market.
Exchange, purchase of cryptocurrency and withdrawal to the Debit/Credit Card
The development team is finishing work on optimizing the SWAP service. Regardless of updates, it is available in working mode 24/7/365. The team is working on improving the operation, optimizing the page, changing the interfaces, improving navigation, and speeding up query processing. This update is also among the upcoming ones, along with the pool, mobile wallets, and other news that will excite.
In the network statistics section, there are several sections that will be fixed — this is the hash rate of the network and the volume of Tkeycoin. Now the volume of Tkeycoin is displayed by mTKEY, and the graph itself indicates M TKEY, the user may incorrectly understand the volume of transactions in the network, so, given the current volume, it is advisable to switch the display to TKEY, and in the future switch to mTKEY for large volumes.
This issue has become the cause of mass discussions, disputes, investigations, the subject of memes, kitchen, and online conversations, that just did not happen, that TKEY is not taken anywhere, someone made guesses that we are waiting for everyone to run away, or TKEY is a world conspiracy and around some actors, you can write a book or shoot a great series, not worse than Breaking Bad. Jokes, jokes, but the question is serious. Since the 4th quarter of last year, the company has been actively working on the issue of listing, prepared the necessary platform for this, held several meetings, negotiations, released the necessary products, figured out various transfers of funds to the blockchain, worked out many small things, many major issues that were behind the scenes. Everything is ready, and it’s time to start soon. This will be a surprise, believe it or not, and we will meet you on the stock exchanges :)
What other plans does the company have?
Enabling payment at retail outlets
After entering the exchange, we will actively engage in connecting payments to implement them and link them to TKEY. The plan, strategy, and legal component are ready.
This implies the development of payments and services that will expand the use of digital currencies in the commercial sphere. Application on the territory of Russia will depend on the Federal law on the CFA, in any case, we plan to analyze the law, after its release, to find a legal way to implement payments based on blockchain and digital assets. Therefore, until the law is released, we are keeping this initiative in the future, and we will work on other jurisdictions that will support it. We left some plans behind the scenes, because they will make the greatest impact on the market and the value of our asset, and this — likes silence.
What useful materials will be released soon?
How to effectively use the SWAP service together with the exchange and purchase of cryptocurrency from a Bank card?
We will tell you in detail how to use these 2 services, how to save on payments and purchases, how to exchange tokens that are very difficult to exchange, how to quickly get money for them to the card, and much more.
The law CFA
Our opinion about the law of cryptocurrencies in Russia, what to pay attention to, what to prepare for, how to act if there is a complete ban. Let’s talk about legal nuances and banking practices.
In this material, we will talk about the blockchain, analyze the issues of the system, expand the questions on attacks, payment processing, and touch on the system of multiple chains. The article suggests your suggestions, perhaps someone will have ideas that we will implement in the chain. At the end, Don’t forget to ask questions in the comments or send suggestions to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) we will be happy to respond and consider your requests for any of our services. Collaboration, feedback, help us make the whole platform better. Thank you for being with us! Until new meetings, stay tuned for news, updates, because the most unexpected news comes spontaneously.
Hi Bitcoiners! I’m back with the 30th monthly Bitcoin news recap. For those unfamiliar, each day I pick out the most popularelevant/interesting stories in Bitcoin and save them. At the end of the month I release them in one batch, to give you a quick (but not necessarily the best) overview of what happened in bitcoin over the past month. You can see recaps of the previous months on Bitcoinsnippets.com A recap of Bitcoin in May 2019 Adoption
Prime Advantage Crypto Margin Trading Exchange audits
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Prime Advantage Platform For Trading Тhere is a live stage exchanging review at PrimXBT so you can encounter how everything functions in advance. A bit of leeway is that this see is incredibly like the real form. One of the distinctions is that there is a mark Positions at the base of review screen. With the live Prime Advantage record you will see positions list with segments: images, positions ID, date and time, present costs, benefit take, misfortune stop, etc. As this see alternative isn't account related, it is obscured and over you can discover the register or sign in choices. All things considered Prime Advantage is the thing that you anticipated that it should be on the grounds that it is very like the exchange pages handy financial specialists are acclimated. On the left top screen side you can see the money sets list including USD/LTC, USD/BTC, USD/ETH, USD/EOS, USD/XRP. You can see the value offer, change and approach costs for each pair. 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WARNING: If you try to use the Lightning Network you are at extremely HIGH RISK of losing funds and is not recommended or safe to do at this time or for the foreseeable future (274 points, 168 comments)
The guy who won this week's MillionaireMakers drawing has received ~$55 in BCH and ~$30 in BTC. It will cost him less than $0.01 to move the BCH, but $6.16 (20%) in fees to move the BTC. (164 points, 100 comments)
Do you think Bitcoin needs to increase the block size? You're in luck! It already did: Bitcoin BCH. Avoid the upcoming controversial BTC block size debate by trading your broken Bitcoin BTC for upgraded Bitcoin BCH now. (209 points, 194 comments)
Master list of evidence regarding Bitcoin's hijacking and takeover by Blockstream (185 points, 113 comments)
PSA: BTC not working so great? Bitcoin upgraded in 2017. The upgraded Bitcoin is called BCH. There's still time to upgrade! (185 points, 192 comments)
This sub is the only sub in all of Reddit that allows truly uncensored discussion of BTC. If it turns out that most of that uncensored discussion is negative, DON'T BLAME US. (143 points, 205 comments)
211 points: fireduck's comment in John Mcafee on the run from IRS Tax Evasion charges, running 2020 Presidential Campaign from Venezuela in Exile
203 points: WalterRothbard's comment in I am a Bitcoin supporter and developer, and I'm starting to think that Bitcoin Cash could be better, but I have some concerns, is anyone willing to discuss them?
163 points: YourBodyIsBCHn's comment in I made this account specifically to tip in nsfw/gonewild subreddits
161 points: BeijingBitcoins's comment in Last night's BCH & BTC meetups in Tokyo were both at the same restaurant (Two Dogs). We joined forces for this group photo!
156 points: hawks5999's comment in You can’t make this stuff up. This is how BTC supporters actually think. From bitcoin: “What you can do to make BTC better: check twice if you really need to use it!” 🤦🏻♂️
155 points: lowstrife's comment in Steve Wozniak Sold His Bitcoin at Its Peak $20,000 Valuation
151 points: kdawgud's comment in The government is taking away basic freedoms we each deserve
147 points: m4ktub1st's comment in BCH suffered a 51% attack by colluding miners to re-org the chain in order to reverse transactions - why is nobody talking about this? Dangerous precident
147 points: todu's comment in Why I'm not a fan of the SV community: My recent bill for defending their frivolous lawsuit against open source software developers.
Australians, you need to start buying as much crypto as you can.
I’m Australian, this isn’t meant to be an alarmist or sensationalist post, but the economic situation in our country is a lot more serious than most of us think. First off, the current economic situation. Simply put, our economy is fucked. Our housing market is dangerously overleveraged and because of policies by our government at the time, we never experienced the correction the US and most of the rest of the world did during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. And now the chickens are coming home to roost. Australians are up to their eyeballs in debt, almost half of the housing loans are interest only, it’s the reason the Reserve Bank of Australia hasn’t raised the interest rates since 2016. Because as soon as they do, even by 0.01%, tens of thousands of Australians are going to default on their mortgages. It’s no secret that our housing market is one of the most expensive in the world, and anyone living in our country already knows this. The market value of Australian homes is 4 times the GDP of the country. Our housing market is beyond the point of saving and the bubble is about to pop. And while our mainstream media is trying to convince us that it will deflate slowly, history paints a different picture. And that’s just the start of our problems. It’s no secret that China is our biggest trading partner. We rely on China more than any other developed country in the world. And what is currently happening on the greater global stage? Our most important military ally has engaged in a trade war with China, and the effects of that trade war are starting to be felt. Chinese stocks are in freefall, and that’s only going to be the beginning of the negative effects from Trump’s hardline approach to dealing with China. It doesn’t take a genius to see that this is going to have a devastating effect on our economy. Our biggest trading partner is having a financial gunfight with the USA, which is going to result in them buying less of our stuff. And still that isn’t the end of it. Mining is down. Commodities prices are down. Our manufacturing sector is almost dead. The only thing we have going for us at the moment is agriculture and that can’t prop up the entire economy. You wanna turn white? Read this article from last year. Our economy is teetering on the precipice. You think I’m being dramatic? Well even the Australian MSM can no longer ignore it. With articles like this appearing almost on the daily. Our dollar is in serious trouble, anyone who knows the slightest bit about TA go look at the graphs in that article. Our country is in serious economic trouble. And we don’t know shit about it because our media is a duopoly that makes most of its money from their real estate arms. All signs are pointing to our dollar about to be worth a hell of a lot less than it currently is. What can we do? Since this is the crypto subreddit the solution to this impending economic shitstorm should be painfully obvious. Buy fucking Bitcoin. Not the solution for the country, for you. The country isn’t going to do shit for anyone of us except saddle us with debt and a cooked economy that is going to take generations to get out of, if ever. So we should be diversifying. Sure buying gold probably isn’t a stupid idea either, but if you think that is proof against state intervention, read a history book. Even then, gold still needs to be converted into cash to be useful, and anyone paying attention can see that Australia is gearing up for a war on cash that borders on tyrannical. The only way for us as individuals to protect our wealth at the moment is to convert it into cryptocurrency. But Bitcoin is low at the moment! No shit. But if you think it’s going to stay that way you are 1. In the wrong subreddit, and 2. No paying attention to the macro factors of crypto. Wall St is gearing up to enter. The bank that runs the world is getting involved. And not just American banks. Bitcoin may be low now but if you know anything about market cycles, you know that it’ll be back. Here is a good comparison of BTC a few years ago as opposed to now. It’s almost at the point where it’s irresponsible not to be buying bitcoin, and I’m not the only one that holds this opinion. Worst case scenario, bitcoin falls to USD 3k. What do you think is going to happen after that? Bitcoin and crypto aren’t going anywhere and you’re kidding yourself if you think that the value of bitcoin isn’t going to be much higher in the years to come. Of course the RBA is telling people that Bitcoin is dead, probably because they don’t want Australians to dump their soon to be worthless fiat currency. In fact one any given day you’ll see a bunch of anti-crypto propaganda on our MSM. The same MSM that has been telling us all to buy as many houses as we can for the last 20 years. The same MSM that up until now hasn’t said shit about the direction our economy is heading in. The writing’s on the wall people. If we keep our wealth in AUD it’s going to be worth considerably less sooner rather than later. Our property sector is going to crash, our dollar is going to crash, our personal wealth is going to be stripped away from us. If you want to avoid this, if you want to protect your wealth, ensure a future that isn’t financial hardship, then we really only have one choice. Buy bitcoin. Personally I am converting half my pay each week into BTC and just holding it. Not putting it into alts. Just btc. I’d advise you do the same as well. I understand that this sounds super risky. But if you read the articles I’ve linked to in this post I’m sure you’ll see that the only risky move is doing nothing. This isn’t a joke or a false alarm. The notion that our economy has always been fine up until now isn’t valid anymore. If you want to protect your personal wealth and purchasing power in the next few years, you really should be buying as much btc as you can while it is this low. This is what crypto is for, avoiding the negative financial downturns of specific countries. It’s a globally traded commodity that is accessible by anyone with a computer. Our economy tanking isn’t going to affect the price one bit. I hope some of this has been useful. Listen to me, don’t listen to me, it’s your choice. But this is the digital age, there’s no excuse for ignorance anymore.
You can make a profit only when you notice the prerequisites for the pump in time. Buying cryptocurrency after a rapid rise in price is extremely risky and there is a high probability of losing money. It is impossible to know about it in advance if you are not familiar with the organizers of the scheme. You can predict the pump if you notice an increase in trading volumes that usually precede it - so called Pre-Pump. Profits depend on how strong the effect will the pump produce. If buyers are inactive, the organizers will quickly get rid of the cryptocurrency and bring down the rate in a matter of seconds. But there are longer living pumps - continuing for hours or days. Pampas are often held on exchanges such as Binance, BitMEX and Poloniex. In order to protect yourself when the cryptocurrency rate falls, you have to set stop losses. And advanced Smart Trade trailing mechanisms on the Trade-mate.io service will help you get the maximum profit during the pump, while insuring traders from the risks of a sharp price drop.
Elaborating on Datadash's 50k BTC Prediction: Why We Endorse the Call
As originally published via CoinLive I am the Co-Founder at CoinLive. Prior to founding Coinlive.io, my area of expertise was inter-market analysis. I came across Datadash 50k BTC prediction this week, and I must take my hats off to what I believe is an excellent interpretation of the inter-connectivity of various markets. At your own convenience, you can find a sample of Intermarket analysis I've written in the past before immersing myself into cryptos full-time. Gold inter-market: 'Out of sync' with VIX, takes lead from USD/JPY USD/JPY inter-market: Watch divergence US-Japan yield spread EUUSD intermarket: US yields collapse amid supply environment Inter-market analysis: Risk back in vogue, but for how long? USD/JPY intermarket: Bulls need higher adj in 10-y US-JP spread The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF. Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to: Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating. While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis. I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary. If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article from late March this year. Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled TheParadox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets." However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass. Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b. Interest Rates Set to Rise Further First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a “revenue environment [that] remains challenging." Nicholas refers to the historical chart of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/947/content_2018-05-30_1100.png) Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green), German 2-year bond yields (black) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve. While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode. Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/948/content_2018-05-30_1113.png) Deutsche Bank - End of the Road? Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge is given, where it states: "One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall “well below” 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%." There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution’s revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models. One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below: !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/946/content_2018-05-30_1052.png) Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!", the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/953/content_2018-05-30_1451.png) Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals. Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch reports. Nicholas extracts a chart by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years. As the author states: "I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commoditieshavennot been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different” to justify what’s going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. " !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/954/content_2018-05-30_1459.png) Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018. The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below: "Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place." Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course." It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments. Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one’s portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital. Anyone Can BeWrongDatadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March. "It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When." Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line. On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights.
bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin Halves every 4 years. Price is function of demand, with consistent demand, and no speculation or outside influence, price grows at 19% per year. 1 -> 2 -> 4 -> 8 is a 19% rate of growth. Volatility is the two-way function of price. Bitcoin is computationally fixed, more predictable than Gold, Fiat, or any other asset known to man - fixed at 19%, with flat demand, flat counter-party influences, 100% unalterable, 100% auditable, 100% known. Regardless of opinion, Bitcoin is more fixed and unalterable, at 19% annualized growth, than any other major store of wealth, in existence, ever - everything flat, society goes linear. What is also fixed? Time. X. Bitcoin is Time when graphed. Meaning, all volatility is due to either change in demand or change in outside influence, never, ever a change in Bitcoin - it is the pole upon which Archimedes stands. Now let's think of the counterpoint, and how Bitcoin is used. For this we will get deep and practical. Bitcoin is not mana, you don't buy a little every day (that is dumb) : Bitcoin is a bank, a reserve. You buy a bunch of it, and devy it out as you deplete. So every new buyer of Bitcoin has some scaling function, whereby savings transfer into Bitcoin, until Maxed, and then if Income < Costs, they pinch out to deplete. The importance here is 19% is inferior to VC moneybags investing, the purchase of tools, the hiring of a tutor, or the micro-investing into side-hustles; but for the passive, index investor, it reigns supreme. Now let's get deeper. The square root of Bitcoin is South America, Africa, Asia, and the island nations - the colonialized, and oppressed. Is it America, is it Europe, is it Communist? Unimportant - it could be the distablization brought on by nature: in any country in which localized Fiat is untrusted, it is setup to pay tribute to a colonial power (such as propagation of USD), or run risk of being debased. The cost of a 51% attack is X, reward more than. Imagine outsiders bring war to Iraq to remove a dictator and acquire oil. In such a case, currency gets debased, commerce halted, and it is the unintentional consequence of a side-quest. People of Iraq live and die, accidentally trampled without malice or profit. Bitcoin saves that. Now if colonization is an objective, and part of the business plan for say the US government is to destabilize Argentina, Turkey, or whatnot - with the hope either they choose to propagate USD, or they pay USD men to provide "insurance" and if not their money gets debased - kinda like a mob, everyone needs a bit of mafia in their life, if only to discourage future suitors. In the event Bitcoin is known, a tortured society can collectively starve-off profits; making those that make money by charging a Colonial Management Fee, make less. Less expectation, less investment. All peoples within a danger zone for rapid debasement can optionally support a known mafioso, Bitcoin, or in the event the destabilization is a cause of nature, their nearest sovereign-currency provider (EU, US, GBP). Once one currency is debased, it is unwise for a population to 'invest' in its replacement. Either it could be contrived, or at a minimum it is untested. Investing in ones local currency should be done at a minimum "whatever you can afford to lose", if it faces significant risk of debasement, or conversely could be used as a hidden-payoff to mobsters. Alternatively one can think of holding local speculative currency as a 'charitable giving', of sorts. Here, Bitcoin is merchandising. Here, Bitcoin is daily spending. The wealth of this customer is paltry, the need sudden, and excessively sharp. They are a refugee - but unlike a migrational refugee, they can flee 'over the internet' so to speak. So, if ones supply chain remains intact, in theory one could swap Debased Dollar for Bitcoin, without any economic loss - loss in the progress of things, stalling of good transfers, services rendered, etc - this is not possible with USD, EU, GBP - sovereign dollars require approval - you got to pay a fee, get a license, ask permission, beg approval to use currency of outside sovereigns. And what is your boss to think if you go cheating on him with USD? Maybe USD don't want to get into that mess. Maybe USD wants to allow a grace period post-breakup so that Angry X Dictator don't get the wrong idea. But not Bitcoin. Now this utility, or function of Bitcoin - Bitcoin is a first-mover into any population experiencing currency destabilization. But, we got a problem. Bitcoin is volatile, both up and down. This customer must sell daily, and must purchase suddenly, unexpectedly - price can not be a factor. So now you are seeing the two-sides of the coin of value. One is shook demand from localized destabilization, and the second is a savings vehicle for the passive investor. Those in shook need to minimize downside risk and high merchant utility, while those into passive saving move large amounts in, slowly, locking it down for a 4 year holding cycle. Thus, savers can benefit those in distress by focusing on stabilizing price, into 4-year cycles, while those in distress can benefit themselves and reduce global tension by avoiding 'puppet currencies' of no material strength. 19% is the flat demand growth rate - 0% population growth, 0% inflation, 0% raises, arrested technological progress, if cost-of-thriving index stays flat, along with cost of living, and Bitcoin demand stays fixed, and price if perfectly predicted, Bitcoin grows at 19%, annually. If one presumes a combined population + tech development + inflation of more than 0, then Bitcoin grows more. But this is misleading... Bitcoin consumes $6.5 Bil annually at a $10,000 value. This is a fixed number, not a percentile. If one says Monetary Growth is 5%... of 20 Trillion, then that is 1 T more dollars. Monetary Growth does not increase war, but it does increase funding for passive investments, like Bitcoin - for the Savers, Bitcoin is a luxury good; like 401k percentages or vacationing. You buy Bitcoin with the expectation of 100% rate of return per US Presidential Cycle (19% per annum). If New Money is saved in Bitcoin at a rate of 1%, then a 1 T increase is a $10 B increase in demand, stabilizing at over a 100% increase in price. So we got: A fixed amount of Old Money, moving into Bitcoin for passive investing with expected rates of 19% - this is done slowly, with a 4 year horizon. This money has extended time preference and sophistication, allowing it to stabilize price. And then we got a % of New Money, which is more like a luxury good, that moves into Bitcoin with a leveraging of easily 100 to 1. This money would be highly volatile, as it would be most like to come out all-at-once after a negative experience from a short trial. And lastly, one has the distressed, who have but a short time to learn about Bitcoin, buy Bitcoin, and have every merchant with whom they interact with accept Bitcoin - to achieve peace. For them, mild fluctuations are like a grocery store increasing their prices 8x over a year, and USD is off-limits - Bitcoin is a necessity, must be instantly accessible, and must be instantly spent. Downward movement of 10% in any given month, or any given week, might prove hazardous for business. Prices, and exchange rates, could still be established in USD, but the actual exchange of value can occur in Bitcoin.. Remember, it is not USD Bitcoin is replacing, but Debased Economies Off-limits to USD - refugees, who want to build instead of migrate, and couldn't before without transferable money. Bitcoin fell 80% in 1-year, which can destroy a business, but a New Money investor of 2-years should of at most lost only 50%, and presumably after 4-years they should up - and all Old Money investors should be up, if not partly cashed out with 1,000% returns. So now we got this weird dynamic where as Bitcoin becomes less negatively volatile annually, it becomes more attractive for New Money, and as it becomes less volatile monthly, it becomes more attractive for the distressed - this new demand creates prices jumps, benefiting Old Money, whose responsibility it is to sell and rebuy intelligently to amplify profits, but also in order to increase the long-term usefulness of Bitcoin. For the coming US Presidential Cycle, we may aim to reduce total negative volatility from 80% to 50%, over a multiyear period and monthly negative volatility from 60% to 30%. The more linear the growth, the more exponential the demand. Old Money must strive to stabilize the price of Bitcoin, both for themselves and for the hurting. Creating price stability within Bitcoin is charity. It is Kindness. It is a social love. If anyone reads that, hope they enjoyed the journey. Bitcoin 1776
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